Port arrivals of imported bauxite remain high, while spot alumina transactions in the domestic market turn sluggish [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on June 4

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded ag2509 alumina futures contract opened at 2,995 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 3,045 yuan/mt and a low of 2,977 yuan/mt, before closing at 3,036 yuan/mt. It rose by 37 yuan/mt, or 1.25%, with open interest at 318,000 lots.

Ore: As of May 30, the SMM Import Bauxite Index stood at $74.71/mt, up $0.33/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was $74/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry Dynamics:

1. According to data on May 30, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports reached 4.8604 million mt, an increase of 377,800 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite port departures from Guinea's main ports were 3.1738 million mt, a decrease of 601,700 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite port departures from Australia's main ports were 1.1392 million mt, a decrease of 53,200 mt from the previous week.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on June 3, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of 249.52 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.

Warrant Daily Report: On June 3, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 14,714 mt from the previous trading day to 112,000 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 300 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 30.01 million mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu decreased by 1,505 mt from the previous trading day to 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang decreased by 13,210 mt from the previous trading day to 108,100 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 3, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.95/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.21. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,273 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 2 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window is gradually opening.

Summary: The weekly operating capacity of alumina continued to rebound, reaching 86.67 million mt/year as of last Thursday, up MoM. The pressure on spot supply has further eased, and the growth rate of spot prices has slowed down. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and spot transactions have become sluggish. In the short term, with the gradual resumption of production of some alumina facilities undergoing maintenance and production cuts, as well as the opening of the alumina import window, the supply pressure on alumina is expected to gradually ease. The average profit of the alumina industry has entered a profitable state, and the market has strong expectations for alumina production resumptions. Alumina futures prices have taken the lead in pulling back, which may drive spot prices weaker. In the future, it is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the alumina capacity of domestic enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]